New data shows that prison capacity will remain ‘on a knife edge’ until at least 2028 – despite recent measures to free up spaces. 

As at September 2025, adult men’s prisons were operating at 97.7% capacity.  Even with further sentencing reforms and prison capacity expansions, demand is projected to outstrip available spaces until at least late 2027. The situation is so desperate that the government has prevented cells scheduled for repairs or fire safety work to be taken out of use – though this may backfire if cells later become totally unusable.

HM Justice Committee recently commented:

‘ The prison estate is in a state of disrepair. Dilapidated buildings and broken infrastructure limit access to rehabilitative spaces and contribute to poor mental health. Despite recent capital investment, it remains unclear how the Government intends to address the £1.8 billion maintenance backlog. We call on the Government to provide a clear breakdown of how funding will be used to address this backlog, and to ensure that future investment is targeted at improving prison conditions with access to rehabilitative activities in mind.’ 

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