The Ministry of Justice now projects that the number of people in prison will increase to between 98,000 and 103,600 by March 2030 – with a central estimate of 100,600. (As at 8 December 2025, there were 87,063 people in prison in England and Wales. Howard League for Penal Reform, December 2025)

The projected increase is driven by several factors including: continued growth in police charging and prosecutorial activity; increased flows into the courts; and increases in the numbers of offenders recalled to custody. Policies that have not received royal assent – such as the Sentencing Bill 2025 – are not included in this projection.

Specifically the adult male prison population is projected to increase to 95,400 by September 2029 and the population of older prisoners from 16,163 to around 18,600 in September 2029. The female prison population is projected to increase from 3,527 at the end of September 2025 to 3,900 by September 2029.

As mentioned above, these estimates do not account for future policies that are likely to supress the growth in prison population but are yet to be formally agreed by Parliament, for example the Sentencing Bill 2025 or responses to the Independent Review into Criminal Courts.

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